Picture this: a vicious cycle where extreme poverty and societal fragility lock millions in Africa into a struggle that seems impossible to break free from. It's a crisis that's not just persisting but intensifying, demanding urgent, innovative solutions in policies and funding. This urgent reality took center stage at a compelling policy seminar on October 17 titled 'Tackling Extreme Poverty and Financing for Food Systems in Africa' (https://www.ifpri.org/event/tackling-extreme-poverty-and-financing-for-food-systems-in-africa/), hosted by the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) right on the sidelines of the 2025 World Bank-International Monetary Fund (IMF) Annual Meetings (https://www.worldbank.org/en/meetings/splash/annual) in Washington, D.C.
In this engaging hybrid gathering, experts from leading organizations—like the United Nations University World Institute for Development Economics Research (UNU-WIDER), the World Bank, the International Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD), and IFPRI—came together to dive into fresh insights. They examined how instability, deep-seated poverty, and hunger are intertwining across Africa, and why funding approaches need a major overhaul to keep supporting the world's most at-risk communities. For beginners, think of fragility here not as a simple yes-or-no state, but as a spectrum of vulnerabilities—like weak governance or frequent conflicts—that can vary by region and evolve over time, much like how a community's resilience might fluctuate after a natural disaster.
At the heart of the conversation were two pivotal reports that complemented each other perfectly. First, there's the upcoming UNU-WIDER–World Bank Poverty and Fragility Companion Report, which offers a fresh perspective on escaping this intertwined trap. Then, there's the Africa Report on External Development Financial Flows to Food Systems (https://www.ifad.org/documents/48415603/51074791/3fs-africa-report_e.pdf/4d706d89-7c9b-d173-d17d-c9ded4fa8c1b?t=1759229990993) (known as 3FS), a collaborative effort by IFAD, IFPRI, and AKADEMIYA2063. These documents paint a stark picture: As poverty and fragility increasingly cluster in Africa's conflict-prone zones, outside funding—particularly for vital food systems like agriculture and nutrition programs—has plummeted dramatically. But here's where it gets controversial: Is this drop in aid a sign that donors are pulling back too soon, or a wake-up call for African nations to step up their own resource game?
Kicking things off, Johan Swinnen (https://www.ifpri.org/profile/johan-swinnen/), IFPRI's Director General, painted a sobering global picture. 'Unpredictability has replaced reliability as the everyday reality,' he noted. Today, around 70% of people living in fragile, conflict-hit areas worldwide are in sub-Saharan Africa. Looking ahead, projections show that by 2030, fully half of the globe's extremely poor will be in the region's unstable states. To put it in perspective, this means billions in potential lost opportunities for education, health, and economic growth if we don't act.
Delving into the Poverty and Fragility Companion Report, co-authors Patricia Justino (https://patriciajustino.net/), the incoming Director of UNU-WIDER, and María Eugenia Genoni (https://blogs.worldbank.org/en/team/m/maria-eugenia-genoni), a Senior Economist at the World Bank, shared groundbreaking analysis. Their work shakes up old ideas by blending detailed local-level data on poverty and instability with a probability-based method to gauge fragility. Simply put, they measure fragility as the odds of government systems failing to deliver—like in providing security or services—which isn't static but shifts based on local conditions and time. By analyzing 1,800 sub-regions around the world, they discovered that almost every one of the 200 most impoverished spots lies in fragile parts of sub-Saharan Africa. 'Instability isn't black-and-white; it's a range of risks that evolve depending on how communities handle crises,' Justino explained. 'By spotting these patterns early, leaders and aid groups can intervene sooner and direct funds to where they'll make the biggest difference.' She also warned that conflicts are once more fueling poverty surges, and outdated development tactics just aren't cutting it anymore. 'We're back to square one from 15 years ago—or even deeper in the hole,' she added, a reminder of how cycles of violence and deprivation can repeat without bold changes.
Building on this, the 3FS Africa report—presented by IFPRI Senior Research Fellow John Ulimwengu (https://www.ifpri.org/profile/john-ulimwengu/)—brings hard numbers to the table, monitoring $117 billion in outside funding for African food systems from 2018 to 2023. While there's been some positive movement in blended finance (for example, using donations from philanthropists to attract private investments into sustainable farming projects) and private-sector tools, the overall picture shows lopsided distribution and a worrying dip in traditional aid. Ulimwengu pointed out that Africa has snagged about 40% of worldwide food-system funding lately, but to truly thrive, the continent needs to own its financial future. This could mean ramping up homegrown investments, forging stronger ties between governments and businesses, and pushing forward promises from the CAADP Kampala Declaration, which calls for doubling agricultural investments to boost food security.
IFAD's Associate Vice-President and Chief Financial Officer, Diane Menville (https://www.ifad.org/en/w/people/diane-menville), chimed in with a key insight: In these tough times, 'solid data and teamwork matter just as much as the money itself' to make sure funds flow to critical areas like rural infrastructure or climate-resilient crops.
Voices from the front lines added real-world grit. Representatives from Mozambique and Somalia highlighted the uphill battle of shoring up budgets and nurturing skills amid relentless crises—like floods, droughts, and political unrest. Enilde Sarmento (https://www.linkedin.com/in/enilde-sarmento-1353a894/en/), an IMF Macroeconomic Adviser, emphasized that winning strategies must be homegrown and collaborative, weaving together smart economic policies, people-focused spending (think education and health programs), and reforms to build stronger institutions. Somalia's team shared how layered shocks—from COVID-19 lockdowns and wars to severe weather—have battered their economy, but they're fighting back by tying food recovery to nation-building and future planning. They described their fresh plan to draw in investments for food systems, leaning heavily on public-private partnerships, such as joint ventures between local farmers and international agribusinesses.
And this is the part most people miss: While the spotlight was on Africa, these issues echo globally. Ana María Ibáñez (https://www.iadb.org/en/who-we-are/how-we-are-organized/management-biographies/ana-maria-ibanez), Vice-President for Sectors and Knowledge at the Inter-American Development Bank, connected the dots to Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC). There, fragility lingers in areas with shaky governance and stark divides, keeping poverty rates stuck near 30% since 2014. Unlike Africa's conflict zones, LAC deals more with rampant organized crime—despite having just 8% of the world's people, it accounts for 30% of global murders, many tied to gangs. This raises a provocative question: Can non-war forms of violence, like drug cartels disrupting communities, create fragility traps just as damaging as armed conflicts?
Swinnen wrapped up by stressing the push for low-income countries to mobilize their own resources more effectively—perhaps by redirecting current budgets toward transforming food systems, like subsidizing smallholder farmers. He also spotlighted IFPRI's growing work on instability, violence, and displacement, which includes proactive measures (preparing for disasters before they hit), real-time tracking of emergencies, and tools to foster lasting strength. The goal? Guide nations from chaos toward steadiness.
The group consensus was clear: As foreign aid shrinks, it will hinder the fight against poverty in unstable areas. They called for blending risk assessment, sustained funding, and fair food system overhauls. Ultimately, the big hurdle is smarter use of scarce resources and foreseeing disasters to avoid them solidifying into unbreakable poverty-fragility loops.
A standout solution? Cutting-edge research tailored to local realities. Without it, we're flying blind on solutions. Menville drove this home by quoting statistician W. Edwards Deming: 'No data? You're just voicing an opinion.' Ulimwengu agreed, urging that researchers team up with decision-makers from the start to turn insights into real-world steps.
What do you think—should international donors double down on aid despite the declines, or is the real power in empowering African-led innovations? Could repurposing domestic funds be the game-changer, or does it risk neglecting urgent needs? Drop your thoughts in the comments; let's spark a discussion on breaking these cycles for good.
Evgeniya Anisimova (https://www.ifpri.org/profile/evgeniya-anisimova/) serves as Media and Digital Engagement Manager in IFPRI’s Communications and Public Affairs Unit; Sami Husa (https://www.wider.unu.edu/expert/sami-husa) is a Communications Associate at UNU-WIDER.
Microsoft Copilot assisted in drafting this piece, which was thoroughly reviewed, revised, and edited afterward.
